Comments on: A modest prediction for the next 20 years http://earlyretirementextreme.com/2008/03/a-modest-prediction-for-the-next-20-years.html Financial independence, frugality, self-sufficiency, ecology, capitalism, and voluntary simplicity Fri, 21 Nov 2008 21:19:16 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.3 By: Elizabeth http://earlyretirementextreme.com/2008/03/a-modest-prediction-for-the-next-20-years.html#comment-865 Elizabeth Sat, 29 Mar 2008 03:47:25 +0000 http://earlyretirementextreme.com/2008/03/a-modest-prediction-for-the-next-20-years.html#comment-865 I'm an optimist. I think that, overall, things get better. I think we're heading into a bad time now. It may last until 2028 or later. The primary crisis will be environmental--the scarcity of resources that you mentioned as well as climate change. By 2028 global warming will have started causing serious problems like water shortages in desert areas and flooding on the coasts. When it starts to have a real effect on the lives of affluent people, the U.S. government will start playing catch-up to try to reverse it. It may be too late, but I have hope that we'll catch on early enough/be smart enough to figure out something. People are selfish and greedy but I think there is a limit to how far a relatively free society will allow things to go before it corrects itself. I also think that the biggest change in the next 20 years will be something we have no idea about yet. The World Wide Web wasn't invented until 1989. Today, it consumes most of my work and personal life and is also the best way to get in touch with my grandmother. I’m an optimist. I think that, overall, things get better. I think we’re heading into a bad time now. It may last until 2028 or later. The primary crisis will be environmental–the scarcity of resources that you mentioned as well as climate change. By 2028 global warming will have started causing serious problems like water shortages in desert areas and flooding on the coasts. When it starts to have a real effect on the lives of affluent people, the U.S. government will start playing catch-up to try to reverse it. It may be too late, but I have hope that we’ll catch on early enough/be smart enough to figure out something. People are selfish and greedy but I think there is a limit to how far a relatively free society will allow things to go before it corrects itself.

I also think that the biggest change in the next 20 years will be something we have no idea about yet. The World Wide Web wasn’t invented until 1989. Today, it consumes most of my work and personal life and is also the best way to get in touch with my grandmother.

]]> By: AJC @ 7million7years http://earlyretirementextreme.com/2008/03/a-modest-prediction-for-the-next-20-years.html#comment-864 AJC @ 7million7years Sat, 29 Mar 2008 03:05:27 +0000 http://earlyretirementextreme.com/2008/03/a-modest-prediction-for-the-next-20-years.html#comment-864 I 'predict' that if you purchase a $250,000 rental property with 10% down and lock in today' interest rates that in 20 years you will be WAY, WAY, WAY better off than you would be if you just maxed your 401k (which, I predict will no exist in 20 years, anyway). I ‘predict’ that if you purchase a $250,000 rental property with 10% down and lock in today’ interest rates that in 20 years you will be WAY, WAY, WAY better off than you would be if you just maxed your 401k (which, I predict will no exist in 20 years, anyway).

]]> By: DNA http://earlyretirementextreme.com/2008/03/a-modest-prediction-for-the-next-20-years.html#comment-862 DNA Sat, 29 Mar 2008 02:42:27 +0000 http://earlyretirementextreme.com/2008/03/a-modest-prediction-for-the-next-20-years.html#comment-862 Whoa, thought Jim Kunstler had started posting on Friday! Most of your predictions make sense, but biotech ultimately depends a lot on Medicare funding for their approved products, so I don't see it doing as well as do you. Whoa, thought Jim Kunstler had started posting on Friday!

Most of your predictions make sense, but biotech ultimately depends a lot on Medicare funding for their approved products, so I don’t see it doing as well as do you.

]]> By: Steve Austin http://earlyretirementextreme.com/2008/03/a-modest-prediction-for-the-next-20-years.html#comment-861 Steve Austin Fri, 28 Mar 2008 23:29:33 +0000 http://earlyretirementextreme.com/2008/03/a-modest-prediction-for-the-next-20-years.html#comment-861 Adfecto, as fellow engineer, I thought you might enjoy these: 1. an article about a superlinear rate of progress: http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html?printable=1 2. a short story about superintelligence: http://www.infinityplus.co.uk/stories/under.htm I'm trying to figure out where you stand on progress. By "same progress" between the two successive 20-year periods, do you mean the rate of change, or the rate of change of the rate of change? Also, I didn't know Kanye West was pro-bionics. I highly recommend them. ;-\ Adfecto, as fellow engineer, I thought you might enjoy these:

1. an article about a superlinear rate of progress:

http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html?printable=1

2. a short story about superintelligence:

http://www.infinityplus.co.uk/stories/under.htm

I’m trying to figure out where you stand on progress. By “same progress” between the two successive 20-year periods, do you mean the rate of change, or the rate of change of the rate of change? Also, I didn’t know Kanye West was pro-bionics. I highly recommend them. ;-\

]]> By: Adfecto http://earlyretirementextreme.com/2008/03/a-modest-prediction-for-the-next-20-years.html#comment-860 Adfecto Fri, 28 Mar 2008 20:45:21 +0000 http://earlyretirementextreme.com/2008/03/a-modest-prediction-for-the-next-20-years.html#comment-860 Work it, make it, do it, Makes us harder, better, faster, STRONGER! - Kanye West In short, that is how I view our future. While I'm pessimistic about the general population, I think we do have enough smart folks that most of our current problems can be overcome. I know that business will continue to thrive (buy equities) and that the global standard of living will continue to increase. The American middle class will probably loose some of their standing (being average just doesn't pay in the face of global completion). Energy will be sourced significantly more from solar and nuclear (it won't be free but it won't bankrupt us either). Supply and demand will gradually make oil and gas unaffordable and human ingenuity will devise a replacement. Politicians will still fail to make tough choices and the market place will solve them instead. The future will not be a utopia but it won't be a dystopian wasteland either. Honestly it will be a lot more like it it today than most people expect. I figure progress from 2008 - 2028 will be about the same amount of progress from 1988-2008. Work it, make it, do it,
Makes us harder, better, faster, STRONGER!

- Kanye West

In short, that is how I view our future.

While I’m pessimistic about the general population, I think we do have enough smart folks that most of our current problems can be overcome. I know that business will continue to thrive (buy equities) and that the global standard of living will continue to increase. The American middle class will probably loose some of their standing (being average just doesn’t pay in the face of global completion). Energy will be sourced significantly more from solar and nuclear (it won’t be free but it won’t bankrupt us either). Supply and demand will gradually make oil and gas unaffordable and human ingenuity will devise a replacement. Politicians will still fail to make tough choices and the market place will solve them instead.

The future will not be a utopia but it won’t be a dystopian wasteland either. Honestly it will be a lot more like it it today than most people expect. I figure progress from 2008 - 2028 will be about the same amount of progress from 1988-2008.

]]> By: m- http://earlyretirementextreme.com/2008/03/a-modest-prediction-for-the-next-20-years.html#comment-859 m- Fri, 28 Mar 2008 20:45:18 +0000 http://earlyretirementextreme.com/2008/03/a-modest-prediction-for-the-next-20-years.html#comment-859 Yikes the sky is falling!!!!!! Yikes the sky is falling!!!!!!

]]> By: Steve Austin http://earlyretirementextreme.com/2008/03/a-modest-prediction-for-the-next-20-years.html#comment-857 Steve Austin Fri, 28 Mar 2008 15:10:13 +0000 http://earlyretirementextreme.com/2008/03/a-modest-prediction-for-the-next-20-years.html#comment-857 In 2028, we will have developed (but not perfected) some prognostication methods and technologies that will satisfy our innate desire to predict non-linear phenomena, but without relying upon our linear hard-wiring. [this is a restatement of an idea from Nick Taleb's The Black Swan, that "we are hard-wired for Mediocristan but we live in Extremistan"] In 2028, we will have developed (but not perfected) some prognostication methods and technologies that will satisfy our innate desire to predict non-linear phenomena, but without relying upon our linear hard-wiring.
[this is a restatement of an idea from Nick Taleb's The Black Swan, that "we are hard-wired for Mediocristan but we live in Extremistan"]

]]> By: escapee http://earlyretirementextreme.com/2008/03/a-modest-prediction-for-the-next-20-years.html#comment-856 escapee Fri, 28 Mar 2008 15:03:49 +0000 http://earlyretirementextreme.com/2008/03/a-modest-prediction-for-the-next-20-years.html#comment-856 I think it might be a little worse than you are predicting. I read on another blog here: http://www.mightybargainhunter.com/2008/03/26/turn-away-spendthrift-parents-at-your-own-peril/ "In a nutshell: adult children of indigent elderly people can be made to reimburse state-run programs or institutions for costs related to their care. Not willing to take your elderly parents in because they can’t afford to take care of themselves? That’s fine, but you’ll still have to pay, if you’re in one of the thirty states (as of 2005) that had such legislation." When Medicare goes bankrupt, and it will, the bills are going to legally fall on the children of these elderly people. I think that if nothing is done this will destroy the wealth of families in our generation (I'm in my 30's), and through no fault of our own. I can add a place on to my house for my mother to live but I won't be able to afford her healthcare on top of my own family's. I think it might be a little worse than you are predicting. I read on another blog here:
http://www.mightybargainhunter.com/2008/03/26/turn-away-spendthrift-parents-at-your-own-peril/

“In a nutshell: adult children of indigent elderly people can be made to reimburse state-run programs or institutions for costs related to their care. Not willing to take your elderly parents in because they can’t afford to take care of themselves? That’s fine, but you’ll still have to pay, if you’re in one of the thirty states (as of 2005) that had such legislation.”

When Medicare goes bankrupt, and it will, the bills are going to legally fall on the children of these elderly people. I think that if nothing is done this will destroy the wealth of families in our generation (I’m in my 30’s), and through no fault of our own.

I can add a place on to my house for my mother to live but I won’t be able to afford her healthcare on top of my own family’s.

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