And yes, a lot of things can change. A person can change. He won’t change his character/personality very much, but opinions, beliefs, circumstances can change a lot.

A lot of things can change between ones early 20s and ones mid 30s, wife and/or progeny not withstanding. Recommend you plan for change, rather than extrapolate history into the future.

I’ve added Collapse to my reading list. Thanks for the suggestion.

As for the $10 million… A basic spread sheet is all you need to verify my claims. Start with $100k per year income and ~$21k in savings. Save 15% in a 401(k) and add an additional 5% match (or $20k/year total). Each year increase that amount at a rate of 4% to match salary growth and cost of living pay increases. Assume global equities return of 8%. After 42 years in 2050 the total comes out to be $10+ million. Adjusted for 3% inflation that would be a bit more than $3 million today.

There are obviously some assumptions (8% return, 3% inflation, 4% annual income growth, etc) but they are all attainable with an aggressive, global investment in stocks. Even at the low side 6% annual return I’d have $6.6 million (plenty to support my lifestyle).

I see no reason not to aim high and have a Plan B if things don’t go quite as well as planned.

I believe there will be some growing pains as we transition from a oil based economy to a hyrodrogen fuel celled one with the h2 generated by wind, solar or fusion electricity. But this will be a good thing for the earth in respect to the reduction of the carbon emission output from fossil fuels.

I agree with mysticaltyger when he/she said it Jacob’s argument sounded very Malthusian. It does and he lived centuries ago. People will find a way to adapt - when they have to.

What gets me is the destruction of native rainforests in developing countries. How many species have to go extinct? How much bio-diversity has to go before we take action? Jacobs argument is most valid here I believe.

The SUV and Hummer market only went downhill when gas prices started getting uncomfortable, started hurting. Not about concerns on reliance on foreign oil, not on concerns about global warming. Not on any abstract in peoples minds but on the pain in their pockets. Probably most people will not take action on climate change and other issues when the polar ice caps are melting. Only when the water starts flooding their houses.

As natural resources become scarce, I expect people to increasingly turn to these virtual products, which in turn will create business opportunities and corresponding investment opportunities. So far we have seen radio, television, software, and video games emerge as industries based on generating and selling intangible data. It seems like there is a lot of room for economic expansion in this direction.

Speaking of which. GDP/energy might be higher than ever, but energy is also higher than ever. So you could say we’re doing relatively better than ever but absolutely worse than ever.

You might be aware that the world was running out of wood a few hundred years ago. Until coal was discovered. Concrete and steel need energy to be processed. Energy from where?

The gloom and doom or rather a cyclical view of civilization is certainly nothing new. The idea of eternal progress (with us as the epitome of everything that has happened before) is new. It is no more than a hundred years old.

I still say that “longing” an energy/resource intensive lifestyle will be a poor choice (literally) - but up to you - I’m short.

A [relatively] wealthy person pays X dollars for the construction of a a house. The wealth is transfered to the workers and those who provided natural resources for its construction. An item of (material) value, the house, is created for the benefit of the owner. Now the magic happens, those who were paid in the creation of the house now have the wealth and are able to spend it to fund more creation.

The moral of the story is that when something is created, the money is still free to cycle through the economic system AND something with value is created. Thus, it is not a zero sum game.

You worry that this cycle can not continue because there will cease to be sufficient natural resources to continue this system…

I am here to tell you that there are a whole lot of natural resources left. We are in no danger of running out of land either. There is plenty left to “rape and pillage” above and beyond just the biosphere (living parts of the natural world). We are in no danger of eminently running out of concrete, steel, or wood. The basic inputs for industrialized production are plentiful.

There is nothing new about your gloom and doom views but they are beyond cynical, bordering on Chicken Little. The reality is that we are actually making progress; I read statements from Ben Bernanke recently that we currently use HALF the energy per unit GDP than we did a few decades ago. We are moving toward sustainable forestry and recycling in building materials. There are scientists and technologists making breakthroughs every day that will allow us to make better use of our resources.

My point is that you are being short sighted and there is no reason industrialization is going to sputter out and doom traditional retirement in our lifetime or our children’s lifetime either. That’s why I’m going to have $10+ million by 2050 sitting in the bank to fund my leisurely, Western style life without working for money. FYI, “15%, (ROTH) IRA or (ROTH) 401k, index fund, and compound interest” is exactly how I’m going to do it too.

It’s an entire book about the situation and scenarios you have just talked about. Not too uplifting if you’ve been used to living as we have. Fossil fuel was quite a fun fling, but no one likes the hangover.