1st off – the China and India haven’t had the class wars happen yet like the US has. In fact, the US will still retain “power” so to speak over everyone because it’s companies incite class wars. Our marketing makes you poor. You think large companies don’t see into the future?

They certainly do – and plan for going w/o this or that. I look at the info tossed around internally at my company and it is amazing how forward thinking they try to be – doesn’t mean they are smart at my level tho .

Also, the “green” or “recycling” revolutions are profitable and cost cutting at the same time. Companies that realize resources are going to be harder to get recognize this. Coca-Cola is supposed to have 100% recycled bottles and cans by 2015 I think it was reported – and it was quietly reported. Notice the softness of the cans? They already recycle their glass bottles in Thailand and Mexico, etc – poor countries with a lack of resources. And by recycle I mean re-use, they steam wash them and re-bottle and re-cap.

It would take an enormous amount of resources to build up the military might of the US. And since we are sorta always watching, it’ll never happen.

As far as people wanting to live here – well, rich people live here, hire smart people, and hire protection. Rich people pay a “protection tax” with “high” tax rates. It’s just easier for a rich person to live in the USA – harder to get at you.

All this talk also excludes exterior actors – like Mafia, war lords, pirates (somalia), etc. They also have to be dealt with, and as seen with the pirates, those with a vested interest will come up with something. 3 pirates got a bullet between the eyes from a good distance in the middle of the ocean on rocking ships – tell me thats an easy shot! Simultaneously no less. Who has people that well trained?

We have whole sections of the government whose sole purpose is to make sure no-one encroaches on our supremacy on any front… and they sure as hell do a good job right now…our morality here in the US is our only check. If the Romans or Spartans had what we have now, they would not be so nice to our enemies and competitors

Jeff

You’ll see that in the 70′s were the greatest time for the bottom 99% of americans in terms of overall share of wealth controlled. As you stated though, this was also the height of cheap energy, which made everybody wealthier.

I’m also shocked by the wealth stats for blacks and hispanics, and by CEO pay multiples.

Jeff

As mentioned, it basically comes down to whether procreation control will be external e.g. starvation, wars, increased mortality or internal e.g. morals or policies. Strangely enough, individuals vastly seem to prefer the former. It is a tragedy of the commons problem. This is why I think the 21st century will be a continuation of wars, etc. to balance human population growth except the 21st century will have more focus on natural boundaries (because they will be more obvious even to non-thinkers/specialists) instead of the politics of the 20th century.

Incidentally, I recommend watching the “Idiocracy” movie for tragicomic view on this problem.

There is a 10% chance that we will have children (or a 90% that we won’t). The above definitely factors into it, but not as much as one should think (We have other things to do than being parents). Another way to think of it … suppose it was 1909 now .. and I told you … well, sometime in the next couple of decades there is going to be a fight for resources, in particular, who is going to be the next empire after Great Britain, and maybe there are going to be one or two larger wars or a series of smaller wars. You are going to see technological advance as well and some of these (a new kind of super weapon) will threaten the survival of humanity as a species if it is ever used. You are also going to see the fall of the current colonial power and that it will be replaced by another one (to be determined, but it could either be Germany, the Soviet Union, Japan, or the US). You are going to see famines and hunger in the US. You are also going to see fantastic new inventions (rocketships). Now, your perspective obviously depends on where you are, who you are, and what you do … for instance, suppose you were a …

a) A rich banker residing in Germany of the Jewish faith.
b) A British coal miner’s son 15 years old.
c) A Polish scientist living in Krakow.
d) A 50 year old ranch owner of 1000 acres in Argentina, one of the ten richest countries on the planet at the time.

Would you have children? Does it depend?

Well, people did despite predictions like the above. Many died but most lived.

As I said, the difference in the individual level is going to be far greater than the macro change. Those that are oblivious(c) or worse, in denial(a), are going to be in trouble as are those who simply cannot get out of the way (b), whereas those who are out of the way (d) will be okay.

The main difference between the 20th century and the 21st century was the the 20th problems were social-social (political) whereas in the 21st century they will change from social-social to social-nature (e.g. moral … what’s more important, more humans or saving nature) and social-technological (also moral, should we risk GM organisms if we could solve the world’s food problem … the answer coming out of a well-fed anti-GM activist and a starving activist might be very different.) … You can also see the difference between the 20th and the 21st as the problem of distributing an increasing amount of resources vs distributing a decreasing amount of resources. A major problem is that the free market philosophy that everybody eventually got around to accepting does not work well if at all without “growth”. From now on, growth needs to be measured in another way … qualitatively rather than quantitatively. If you think this is easy, think about how this would completely change the way we see and use money in the distribution process.

USA dominates the center of globalization because it controls the very best knowledge of industrialization, i.e. produce ever more products with ever less cost(maybe not so when environmental cost counted). When it starts to realize that resource is going to run out, environment cannot handle ever expansion, I tend to think it will find a way to produce more with less (natural) resources. The questions is if it’s going to realize soon enough.

Your scenario sounds doomsday. Being a father I’d like to prepare for the worst. Canada sounds like the exact country you would describe a survivor. Anyone moving north?

Either way, I’m all right here at 47N

I agree wholeheartedly though that we have reached a point where the failings of our political system have been well exposed. All of our representatives seem to support the same thing– spending too much, because it is popular.

As we are, as in the majority, unable to face truth with calmness, chaos will continually to increase (exponentially), and the scenario will probably work out similar to what you predict. But ultimately, the system will correct itself, whether we like it or not, and interestingly, we may live to see what that means.