With economic data coming out that are worse than predicted as well as worse than the last report, the market mood is now exuberant to say the least. Is this just the latest run up in what will be the greatest wealth transfer of this generation (from boomers about to retire or presently being retired to their children and grandchildren?
I can’t but help to think that this recovery could be W shaped. Those that didn’t bite the dust in March might bite it if we bottom a second time. Recoveries are born from psychological depressions, that is, the point where there are no sellers left. Conversely, crashes happen, when there are no buyers left(*). Perchance, March did not hit hard enough?
(*) Yes, I know there’s always one buyer and one seller for any transaction. I am talking about specific price points.
As certain stocks in my portfolio has been getting close to their predetermined sell criteria, I have started writing covered calls on them. You can see how I do it here. If the market does not retract soon, I will be selling them and convert to cash. The specific stocks that are in the money is my full HRP position and a partial WFC position.
If you look at the P/E value of those stocks it is sky high.
The trick of course will be to avoid turning around and investing in something else tempting as that is. Most things out there are not nearly as good a bargain as they were half a year ago. If I buy something else, I am bound to lose money, since choices are more limited now. I can, therefore, either convert into something with a really low beta (MO) or buy bonds a few years out.
Given the massive government pumping, I don’t think bonds is the place to be. Protection of principal is getting harder every day.
Originally posted 2009-10-12 12:31:46.