This essay really hits home for me as a Gen Xer. So perfect that even though we weren’t the main cause of this catastrophe (damn Boomers), we will get the blame because the real decisions will have to be made in the next 20 years. I so want the “fuck you” money.

“People are always preparing for the last war.” I was just watching a WWII documentary that focused on why the Germans won the initial battles against France and England. Basically, the Allies were fighting WWI and Germany had moved on to the next war. The Allies had tanks desinged (basically armored cars) to support infantry and Germany had tanks designed to kill tanks and infantry to support tanks. Plus, the strategy to go with it.

Interesting theory on WWIII and quite possible. I would think that some refined/improved type of hacking/electronic warfare will also be prevelant during the next conflict. The Stux virus and the Chinese attacks on U.S. systems just being the bi-planes in the development of this type of warfare.

John Robb has some interesting theories about future “tribes/communities” at: http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/

Any good books on the Kondratiev Cycle?

Great marketing post to convince people that ERE is the way to go.
It fits the classical AIDA model:

– get Attention (throw some scary staff at the beginning like oil peak).
– hold Interest (keep throwing some scary staff, Germany, WWII).
– arouse Desire (continue with even scarier staff, WWIII).
– obtain Action. (Last line reminds people that ERE is the only way to go. Of course, don’t forget to buy the book as well 🙂 ).

Personally, I don’t know what future holds, but I am pretty sure that the guy with more resources and bigger guns will win over the guy with moral principles and minimalist lifestyle :).

@JasonR – The US didn’t really take over the “superpower” status until WWII (along with USSR). Prior to that it was Great Britain.

@ Chad

🙂 Thanks for making me laugh. It is funny to see brainwashed people.
What commercials? What webpages? Did you miss the message in Jacob’s post that we will have limited energy, less globalization and less resources? How are you planning to power up your TV? Why would anyone pay for commercials if resources are limited and mass production is dead?

BTW, all these “fighting the last war” comments are total nonsense. They are only applicable in the hindsight. Applicable to WWII as well. Sure, Germany had better tanks than England/France, but it has totally failed to recognize that England had radar capabilities and it has cost Germany the “Battle of Britain”. So, who was fighting the last war then?

I want to emphasize that we don’t know what kind of war WWIII will be. It could be that the nation states are so decimated in their power due to the debt crises that their influence essentially ends and corporations take over as the de facto rulers (in some ways we’re already there). It doesn’t mean that they’ll no longer exist. They just no longer have the final word. This is kinda how the church lost its dominant influence 500 years ago but still exist complete with its tax system, tithing, which, however, it can no longer enforce, so it’s voluntary for all practical purposes.

It may be that the next technological jump will be into space instead of the internet. In that case, if launch of extreme high altitude travel becomes common, we’re looking at orbital bombardment. All one really needs is a metal dart along with some steerable fins.

Or it could be biological in nature. Gene wars? Epidemics. Planned crop failures.

I just don’t think traditional bullets or the concept of whoever can damage the enemies factories the most will be a factor that determines the winner. It may be that it’s not between nations either.

I would bet that it wouldn’t be between nations.

@lol
Actually, the German tank response completely suggests that “fighting the last war” thoughts are not only useful in hindsight, but in forward thinking.

Yes, England had radar. I didn’t say the Germans had mastered every little bit of “new” war tech or strategy. I specifically mentioned tanks…and stopped. Obviously, some people in England were smart too.

Yes, Russian tanks were technologically superiot to German tanks. But, again, I didn’t say the German’s were all knowing war gods. Just that their tank designs were for the “new” war and the British and French weren’t. Just because Germany looked ahead doesn’t preclude other nations from doing it, as it’s not a zero sum game. Good for the Russians.

Jacob is stating there will be less power. He is not, and if I’m wrong about this then we disagree, stating that there is none or zero power. Just that there will be less and it will be more expensive. I’m sure if I want to watch TV or get on a computer it will be prefectly plausible, but I might want to limit my time as it could be a little expensive.

This is obviously not a logical argument for you, so I’m done pitting logic against beliefs.

@ datddlrl

Google “afghanistan natural resources” before making claims about resources & Taliban.

The next cycle could also be based on artificial intelligence and autonomous robotics. Yay, skynet!

very interesting post. some thoughts :

i agree w/ much of what you said, but I think you’re fitting your predictions with your current scheme. imho, you’re ‘surfing’ – which means that you have found your own manner to ‘game the system’ which works only because of the tremendous momentum (the wave in which you are surfing upon) that this economy/society currently enjoys.

what momentum? the returns you receive from the market are ephemeral, when the market crashes (and it will) – good luck preserving your capital. the lack of required security you take of advantage of in your RV is also ephemeral, when society starts losing respect for the rule of law (and it will) – good luck preserving your capital.

i’ve heard you reference dmitry orlov before, take heed of his warning that folks in the US won’t cope with the coming collapse nearly as well as the Soviets did (for many well thought out reasons). it _will_ be disorderly.

the only currency going forward will be supplies (in the near-term) and old-technology know-how (in the long-term). my own feeling is that ppl should consider ERE’ing into a ‘fort’ out in the country, supply-up, learn how to become self-sufficient to the greatest extent possible, and start knowing your neighbors.

i agree heartily with the comment “all creatures including humans have absolutely no foresight as a species” .. it is interesting to study why humans’ myopic tendencies allow for all of these intricate (unsustainable) ponzi welfare schemes & martingale-style economic recovery schemes.

someone mentioned the famous Julian Simon bet .. take heed! Ehrlich won in the long run my friend.. see :
http://www.economist.com/node/21525472

i would really be careful about putting so much faith in the argument that technology always finds a way .. the problem of induction is a dangerous logical fallacy.

keep up the great posts!

@Jacob, not accumulating 5M in $$ .. accumulating supplies that will contribute towards subsistence. part of my point is that your garden will be coveted by your (many) neighbors which is why i suggest getting away from the city onto your own plot of land that can be defended. also, you need a place to store these supplies.

our differing forecasts necessitate different strategies – mine is more focused on security. I agree that connections and primary resources are critical. furthermore, i feel that ERE is a great means to either of our ends and would recommend to anyone to quit the current consumerist paradigm.

Intelligence always prevails, and EREmer’s will have more time to devote to that skill come WWIII!

Side note: All those cars out in the parking lots, you could have made a better machine by now with all those resources. Gundams are pretty good at killing tanks, Fighter Jets, and Helicoptors even without their Space capabilities!

@Dragline – More thinking is clearly required. This is a major part of the INV book as it determines which asset class to invest in and where in the business cycle we are and will be. I have little doubt that the two are somehow connected.

i took a course last semester where i was exposed to Kondratieff’s Waves of Economic Activity. according the textbook that was recommended, John Goyder’s Technology + Society, the next cycle will be driven by Biotechnology:

http://books.google.ca/books?id=fJLXSt4qBr0C&pg=PA99&lpg=PA99&dq=technology+in+society+lyndhurst+collins+vol+16&source=bl&ots=O_4yMlhQ6d&sig=5zMVbYkOoc3s7aKfjtxeBh4gO1o&hl=en&ei=nc2fTvChBIKUiAKu8NSKAQ&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CB0Q6AEwAA#v=onepage&q&f=false

@Marlene,
Actually I was replying to @freeUrChains’ comment about some of the “features” of Japan. More precisely, freeUrChains was referring to this paragraph:

Specifically, this means moving away from a lifestyle that’s intensive in energy (driving, living far away, buying products from far away), massproduction (buying products instead of thinking and improvising), and quantity (more and bigger instead of longer and better). [… …]

… and I responded that those are possible in Japan because of the energy intense and wasteful industrial living memes and not instead of it. Whereas Jacob is arguing for “instead of” lifestyles.

Add “No-till farming” to Jacob’s list of corrupted words of the day. 😐

Oh, and Marlene, there have been iconoclasts like Fukuoka in Japan and the rest of the World from time to time. For example, do you know of Akinori Kimura and his Miracle apples, for instance?

As one Indian permaculturist I know puts it,

“Destruction through mass consumption is big, visible and centralised. (See mining companies) But rejuvenation is always small, invisible and decentralised. (See volunteer reforestation efforts)”

This is both true and tragic. That is why I root for any exposure that simple living gets in our times.

My 2nd comment seems to have taken a life of its own and went berserk, despite 3 or 4 postings. If you were left scratching your head after reading it because of the bad formatting, here is the (hopefully) well formatted version of my 2nd comment. Pardon the order of appearance!

———

@Jacob,
One line on the article: “I want to believe”(*)!
(*) Well, I do believe, but only some of it.

@acroyear has raised some of the immediate points I had. His
counterpoints are also valid because, in scenarios that you are
projecting, you’ve not considering return to Serfdom as a
possible outcome of this madness. In such scenarios “working for
income” becomes a different beast and definitely not as you put
it: “It’s not hard to find work that pays < $10k / year.”!

Certainly, I greatly admire one fact; that of the lot of us, who are
approaching ERE, your lifestyle is actually the most decoupled from
the “money economy”. For the rest, it won’t be that easy because of
the amount of “lock-in” that we presently have.

I certainly think it will be a “long descent” with radical lifestyle
changes. Also much of it will be defined by geographic locations and
cultural memes of that particular area. Thinking on one’s feet will be
of great importance.
Like some others point out, you underestimate the nuisance from
thieves and spongers. I am very anti-weapons, so I won’t ever
recommend the “lock and load” survivalism road. I think you need to
spend more time expanding on the idea of clans/tribes with Dunbar
limits to prevent ‘gunslinger’ themes from poping too often.

>> all creatures including humans have
>> absolutely no foresight as a species

I cringe and despair to think what would happen to the already
dwindling wildlife (flora and fauna) when billions of humans,
brainwashed into “gollum consumerism” and armed with guns/weapons
decide during scarcity periods. I don’t think anyone bothers to even
remember how the Native Americans lived off the land!
Someone mentioned Japan: Japan is such a major importer of all its
goods needed for industrial civilisation style of living. And it is
industrial living that has the ability to pack so many millions in
such small cramped places. The model will breakdown, once industrial
style of produce/consume derails… Japan is a long involved story in
its own right. Here’s one:

The great influence of the Japanese Central Union of Agricultural
Cooperatives (Nokyo) in policy making partly resulted from a
widespread feeling of gratitude to the dwindling agricultural sector,
which in the past supported the country’s industrial
modernization.
Nokyo spokespersons were vociferous in their claims that agriculture
is somehow intimately connected with the spirit of the nation. They
argued that self-sufficiency, or near self-sufficiency, in food
production, resulting from government support of the nation’s
farmers,

was central to Japan’s security. The public in general was
receptive to their arguments: an opinion poll in 1988, for example,
revealed that 70 percent of respondents preferred paying a higher
price for rice to importing it.

The equally ridiculous footnote about this commendable
self-sufficiency argument is that their agriculture is as mechanised
and industrialised as USA and is therefore totally dependent on
fertilisers, pesticides and oil all of which is imported of course
!

Also, I am still not quite on board with this “Generational
dynamics” thing! But I can say from my own limited
observation, the previous generations (the GI Joes?) were
definitely more cool than the present ones who inhabit this earth (the
boomers onwards)..

Take aways:
1. This is the Winter cycle, so expect a lot of snafus!
2. As a Gen-Xer, I am stuffed and have to make my own way. Actually, I
am pretty cranky all the time, so not too far off with that
assessment!
3. Learn as many ways as possible to decouple yourself from the money economy.
4. Hope for the best, prepare for the Worst.
5. Dust off and read extensively from the grandparents’ rule
book on making friends with the neighbours and relatives.

[…] (which I now regard as slightly less imminent, but no less inevitable (Ed’s note: See this article by Jacob for a detailed, yet similar prognosis), but it was mostly short-term […]

There is no shortage of sunlight. Thorium is about as plentiful as lead. (Look up thorium fission.) There is no shortage of alternative energy. There may be a shortage of wisdom to tap it safely, however.

The Peak Oil folks remind me of the John Birch Society — both get a high off fear. (I was first exposed to John Birch Society thinking from a group that was selling compilations of free energy patents back in the late 70s — “None Dare Call it Conspiracy” and “The Rockefeller Files” were their follow on sell.)

Having looked up some of the details of the Kondratiev cycle and thought through this a good bit, I have a different prediction to make regarding what the future is likely to hold.

Kondratiev cycle are a symptom of a culture that has a habit of using resources faster than they can replenish themselves. Let me point out that this is NOT the only way of living on this planet. If my reading of old fables is accurate, there was a time when the woodcutter moral code was to plant two trees for every one that was cut down. Such dynamics serve to maintain a resource indefinitely.

However, in a culture such as ours where Kondratiev cycles have a degree of relevance to the form our culture takes over a period of time, I predict that those cycles MUST in and of themselves be finite in number. On a finite planet you cannot go on depleting one resource after another indefinitely.

Long term (which may be tomorrow or longer than any of us here will live), there must be a return to using resources in ways that allow them to be maintained inperpetuity, if humans are going to survive as a species.

IMO, ERE in its anticonsumerist code is a good initial step in that direction while we still live in a world that is playing out the wetiko virus.

Surplus is a function of total population. The surplus arises from the innovation of the surplus brains. More brains, more innovation, more brains. Surplus brains are a consequence of food preservation. Food makes people. Food preservation took off after 1811 (Napoleon’s food preservation prize winner – Nicholas Appert). Canning and bottling made never ending pan-seasonal war possible resulting in trench warfare in WW1.

During deflationary times markets seek cost avoidance via innovation. this innovation “eats” the last remaining vestiges of the dying paradigm by destroying profits and labor. As the paradigm collapses, the incipient pressure from the collapse increases social, economic and political heat. Eventually the social heat and compression overcomes the collapse and accelerates into/results in war. War generates shock waves creating new paradigms such as how the nova of WWII created radar, computers, electronics, battlefield medicine, institutionalized research and development, rocketry, NASA, satellites, commercial jet aviation. It is this paradigm which is now collapsing into itself and unusually, the previous paradigms remains are also collapsing simultaneously (print, post office, telephony, location based retail, family, religion to name a few). The simultaneous collapse of multiple paradigms is similar in scale and consequence to the switch from hunter gatherer to farming, and the emergence of printing. If we were a star, we might be looking at an iron sequence. Given enough mass, supernova is the result.

A rather depressing write-up. Also, sounds like an attempt at prophesy?
I liked Dr. Oz before he became a quack. Hope that is not what happens to ERE.

Peak oil is in the same league as the sky is falling, world is ending etc. in my view.
The world is a better place than it was 50, 100 years ago and it will be better tomorrow.

An abundant substitute for cheap oil is inevitable.
I see a day when children’s toys will have more power than today’s nuclear reactors.
I see a day when humans will have means to power a sun when our sun burns out.

@peter – It’s totally what’s happening to ERE and it’s not prophecy. It’s statistics. Consider this. The world is a better place than it was 300 years ago. For the past three centuries, thing have become better and better. However, it’s easy to confuse the track record for such a record with eternal progress. Every and each civilization before us has grown and faded over the period of a handful of centuries (the Egyptian civilization was an exception, but they prioritized stability rather than growth). To wit, the Romans had indoor plumbing, concrete, a continental system of roads, and they could cast concrete under water. The Greeks had the steam engine and mechanical computers. All that was lost and wasn’t recovered to the same level until the mid 19th century. If we projected their level forward back in 200 AD by all means, we should be powering suns and having our kids play with nuclear reactor sized playdoh by now. But we aren’t.

That’s not to say that we won’t have another, 10, 50, or 100 years of progress. However, historically, we’ve NEVER had a civilization endure forever.

“That’s not to say that we won’t have another, 10, 50, or 100 years of progress. However, historically, we’ve NEVER had a civilization endure forever.”

That is true. Nothing lasts forever but there is a sizable gap between the next 50-70 year cycle you write about and forever.

We apply our intelligence as a species to a problem once we broadly acknowledge it.

Look at global warming…the underlying problem has been obvious to scientists for a long time. Even with a ton of evidence there is still a lot of resistance, but there is also a lot of support.

It’s like being on a freight train heading for a washed out bridge. You hear there has been flooding in the area you are passing through so you slow down. At some point you are aware the bridge is out and you apply the brakes fully, but the train has a lot of momentum so it decelerates slowly. At the time you apply the brakes fully you are not sure what’s going to happen.

The good news is we have a much better communications network than ever to spread information. More good news [albeit also a cause of our problems] is that the developed world can reduce their consumption a massive amount without compromising a pretty awesome life.

So it seems to me that how severe the problems we face will be determined by our ability to agree we have a problem and our willingness to apply technological/economic/cultural solutions.

I also think trying to apply historical patterns to predict future outcomes in geopolitics is the same as in the stockmarket. It is a reasonable approach given the other options as long as you understand the fundamental problem…that the future may behave unlike the past.

My own personal view is that flexibility is the key to doing well. You might get lucky if you specialize, but you could also lose big.

If you are a doomer and prep an acreage with a bunker and shit ton of supplies/weapons/etc… and the new reality means you have to move 2000kms quickly you’ll be leaving all your amassed stuff and throwing a small amount into whatever passes for transport at that time. With all your prepping you ignored your fitness or computer programming skills or whatever becomes vital and you end up far worse.

So here is what I am doing:

– paying off property on a lightly populated island with climate likely to be favourable for living and agriculture for a long time.
– reducing my consumption needs somewhat $30K-$40K/yr vs. $80K-$100K which would be normal for my profession/peer group.
– being aware I can reduce my consumption needs by 75%+ if needed.
– maintaining a high level of fitness for my age.
– keeping a variety of useful resources available and having the skills to use them [bicycles + tools + basic parts, fishing gear, basic tools].
– building my capital to deal with economic pressure without getting too wrapped up in generating a huge amount of $$.
– continually learning and thinking.
– maintaining a high level of project management, leadership and communications skills.
– know how to use weapons [I’m retired army], but don’t hold any at the moment.

My goal is to always stay in the top 25% of people in terms of resources/skills to adapt to the future. I don’t need to be a superstar I just need to be better than most and surf the curve that will always exist in a human society.

With that and some luck [ie not being at ground zero for whatever goes wrong] I think I’ll do fine without having to make specific choices now and dedicate all my resources to them only to find out I guessed wrong.

— Vik